Political stability and its Impact on Macroeconomic Variables in Iraq after 2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31272/ipj.54.17Keywords:
Political and Economic Stability, Rentier Economy, Monetary Policy, Fiscal PolicyAbstract
The aim of the research is to determine the relationship between political stability and the variables of the Iraqi macroeconomics from 2006 to 2021 and how this stability can reduce the shocks of the economic situation and its impact on choosing appropriate economic policies. This topic is one of the important topics that drew the attention of researchers and specialists in the political and economic fields.
Iraq's internal political stability affects the stability of its general economy, which depends on the oil sector, which accounts for more than 90% of the state's general revenues. Oil, in turn, is subject to price fluctuations in the global market. Therefore, the political shocks that Iraq is exposed to affect its economic policy greatly.
The results of the research revealed that there is a positive relationship between political stability and economic stability in Iraq, which is achieved through the stability of the Iraqi governmental political institutions, which leads to achieving economic growth, economic development and the welfare of the Iraqi society. The research has proven that instability has led to a decline in the performance of the Iraqi economy in most areas. Among other results, the emergence of corruption in all its forms as a result of failed policies, instability and waste of many of its resources in failed projects made Iraq one of the most corrupt countries.
References
المصادر باللغة العربية :
ابو شاور، منير اسماعيل، و امجد عبد المهدي. 2011. النقود والبنوك , الطبعة الاولى , عمان : مكتبة المجتمع العربي.
الابراهيم، سعدي.2014. مستقبل الدولة العراقية، الطبعة الاولى ، بغداد: دار الكتب العلمية.
الحجار، بسام ، ورزق ، عبد الله. 2010. الاقتصاد الكلي ، الطبعة الاولى ، بيروت: دار منهل اللبناني.
ال شبيب، دريد كامل. 2011. المالية الدولية ، عمان : الطبعة الاولى دار اليازوري للنشر.
المعموري، عبد علي كاظم. 2012. تاريخ الافكار الاقتصادية ، الطبعة الاولى عمان: دار الحامد للنشر.
سولت، جيرمي سولت. 2011. تفتيت الشرق الاوسط تاريخ الاضطرابات التي يثيرها الغرب في الشرق الاوسط، ترجمة نبيل صبحي الطويل ، الطبعة الاولى ، دمشق : دار النفائس للطباعة والنشر والتوزيع.
الامانة العامة لجامعة الدول العربية. 2010. "التقرير الاقتصادي العربي الموحد". القاهرة.
الشاهر، شاهر اسماعيل. 2019. "الإستقرار السياسي معاييره ومؤشراته". دام برس. 31 اكتوبر,2016 .
آل طعمة، حيدر حسين. 2021." الاقتصاد العراقي عام 2021:حقائق وارقام."جامعة كربلاء- كلية الادارة والاقتصاد.
المحمدي، ناظم عبد الله عبد ، وعلي نبع صايل الصبيحي. 2018. "التنبؤ بمسارات التضخم في العراق للمدة 2020-2011" جامعة الفلوجة- كلية الادارة والاقتصاد.
الموسوي، حنان عبد الخضر ، و عبد الوهاب محمد جواد الموسوي ، و حيدر نعمة بخيت . 2017. "اثر عدم الاستقرار السياسي على المسار التنموي في العراق" ،كلية الادارة والاقتصاد جامعة الكوفة ،العدد 1 اصدار ، 3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24086/cuesj.v1n1a9
الوائلي، خضير عباس حسين. 2012. "أثر الصدمات الاقتصادية في بعض متغيرات الاقتصاد الكلي في العراق للمدة (1980-2011)". رسالة ماجستير ، جامعة كربلاء العراق.
البنك المركزي العراقي - دائرة الاحصاء والدراسات. 2021.
البنك المركزي العراقي دائرة اإلحصاء واالبحاث قسم النمذجة االقتصادية والتنبؤ تقرير آفاق الاقتصاد العراقي، الفصل الثالث. 2021.
بخيت، حيدر نعمة. 2013. الحكم الصالح في العراق ودوره في بناءالدولة ، مجلة الغري للعلوم الاقتصادية والادارية. جامعة الكوفة. المجلد 9 العدد 28.
تركــي ، احمــد الســيد. 2012. اعراض مابعد الاحتلال التــداعيات السياســية والامنيــة للانســحاب الامريكــي مــن العــراق، مجلة السياســية الدولية، العدد (187)، القاهرة.
حافظ، عبد العظيم جبر. 2012. "تحول الديمقراطي في العراق بعد عام 2003 " ، جامعة النهرين ، كلية العلوم السياسية، رسالة ماجستير منشورة .
رجب، ايمان احمد. 2010." استقرار العراق ، علاقة اشكالية بين الامن والسياسة". مجلة السياسة الدولية العدد 179، القاهرة.
سبع، سداد مولود. 2015. شكل الأمن والاستقرار السياسي في العراق بعد العام 2003 ، مجلة دراسات دولية العدد 62.
عايب، وليد عبد الحميد. 2010. "الاثار الاقتصادية الكلية لسياسة الانفاق الحكومي دراسة تطبيقية قياسية لنماذج التنمية الاقتصادية" ، مكتبة حسين العصرية بيروت.
عبد الحسين، عدي فالح. 2010. "العنف السياسي في العراق بعد عام" 2003 ، رسالة ماجستير منشورة في جامعة بغداد، كلية العلوم السياسية.
عودة، فلاح جاسب. 2013. التعددية الحزبية وظاهرة عدم الاستقرار السياسي العراق بعد عام 2003 دراسة حالة، جامعة النهرين، كلية العلوم السياسية، رسالة ما جستير غير منشورة.
منشورات صندوق النقد الدولي. 2021.
منظمة الشفافية الدولية ( Transparency International (TI. 2021.
هاشم، حنان عبد الخضر. 2010. البطالة في الاقتصاد العراقي : الاثار الفعلية والمعالجات المقترحة ، مجلة الغري للعلوم الاقتصادية والادارية ، العدد 2.
هاشم، حنان عبد الخضر. 2016. التغيير الهيكلي في الاقتصاد العراقي بين الضرورات والاثار المستقبلية ، مجلة الكوت للعلوم الاقتصادية والادارية.
هيدان، نوره كطاف، وسلمان، زينب طالب . 2019 . الفساد كاحد معوقات الاستقرار السياسي في العراق ، مجلة تكريت للعلوم السياسية العدد 17.
وكالة الانباء العراقية. 2021.
المصادر باللغة الانكليزية :
Abu Shawar, Mounir Ismail, and Abdul Mahdi, Amjad. 2011. Alnkud W Al Bnuke [ Money and banks], Altabaa Al aula, mktabt Al mujtamaa Al Araby, Amman.
Al-Ibrahim, Saadi. 2014. Mustakbal Aldaulaa Al Iraqiya [The future of the Iraqi state], Altabaa Al aula, Baghdad : dar al ktub alalmyaa.
Al-Hajjar, Bassam, and Abdullah Rizk . 2010. Al aktsad Al kuly [total economy], Altabaa Al aula, Beirut: Dar Manhal Al-Lebany.
Al Shabib, Duraid Kamel. 2011. Al malyaa Al dualya [International Finance], Altabaa Al aula, Amman: Dar Al-Yazuri llkasher.
Al-Mamouri, Abd Ali Kazem. 2012. Tareeh Al afkar Al aktsadya[History of economic ideas ], Altabaa Al aula, Amman : Al-Hamid Llnasher.
Sult, Jeremy Sult. 2011. Tafteet Alsharke Al awsate w Tarikh Al athtrabat alty ytheerha Algarbe fee Alsharke Al awsate [Fragmentation of the Middle East History of the disturbances stirred up by the West in the Middle East] , translation Nabil Subhi Al-Taweel, Altabaa Al aula, Damascus :Dar Al-Nafaes LL teebaa W Al nasheer W Al tawzyee.
Al amaana Al amaa L gameeaa Al dual Al Arabya. 2010." Altakreer Al aktsady Al Araby Al muaheed [Unified Arab Economic Report]" , Cairo.
Al-Shaher, Shaher Ismail. 2019. "Al Astkrar Al syasy M aayrh w muashrath[Political stability, its criteria and indicators]".dam press. 31 october,2016.
Al Tomaa, Haider Hussein. 2021. " alaiqtisad aleiraqiu eam 2021:haqayiq warqam [The Iraqi economy in 2021: facts and figures ]". Karbala University - College of Administration and Economics. 31 december , 2021.
Al-Mohammadi, Nazim Abdullah Abd, and Ali Nabaa Sail Al-Subaihi. 2018. "al tanabu bmsaraat altadakhum fi Al Iraq lilmudat 2011-2020 [Forecasting inflation paths in Iraq for the period 2011-2020] ". University of Fallujah - College of Administration and Economics.
Al-Moussawi, Hanan Abdel-Khader, Abdel-Wahhab Muhammad Jawad Al-Moussawi ,and, Haider Nehme Bakhit. 2017. "Athar adam alaistiqrar alsiyasii ala Al msar altanmawii fi aleiraqi [The impact of political instability on the development path in Iraq] " .College of Administration and Economics, University of Kufa, Issue 1, Issue 3.
Al-Waeli, Khudair Abbas Hussein. 2012. athar alsadamat alaiqtisadiat fi baed mutaghayirat alaiqtisad alkuliyi fi aleiraq lilmuda (1980-2011)". [ The impact of economic shocks on some macroeconomic variables in Iraq for the period (1980-2011)]". Master's thesis, Karbala University, Iraq
Al Bank Al markzy Al Iraqi –Daarat Al ahsaa W Al drasat. 2021.
Central Bank of Iraq, Department of Statistics and Research, Department of Economic Modeling and Forecasting, Iraqi Economic Outlook Report, Chapter Three. 2021.
Bakhit, Haider Nehme. 2013." alhukm alsaalih fi aleiraq wadawruh fi bina'aldawlat. [Good governance in Iraq and its role in building the state]", Al-Ghari Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences. University of Kufa. Volume 9 Issue 28.
Turki, Ahmed Al-Sayed. 2012. "Aarath ma bad Al ahtlal Al tadaayat alsiyasiyat walamnit lilainsihab alamriky man alearaq [Post-occupation symptoms, the political and security repercussions of the US withdrawal from Iraq]", International Politics Journal, Issue (187), Cairo., Majala Al syasyaa Al dualya, Al add (187), AlCahira.]
Hafez, Abdul-Azim Jabr. 2012. "Al tahual Al Democraty fi Al Iraq bad Al aam 2003[Democratic transformation in Iraq after 2003]", Al-Nahrain University, Faculty of Political Science, a published master's thesis.
Ragab, Iman Ahmed. 2010." Astkrar Al Iraq, alakaa ishkalya been Al ameen W Al syasa [The stability of Iraq, a problematic relationship between security and politics.” Journal of International Politics, Issue 179, Cairo.
Sebee, sudad moloud. 2015. Shkeel Al ameen w Al astkrar fee Al Iraq bad Al aam 2003 [The shape of security and political stability in Iraq after 2003]. Journal of International Studies , No. 62.
Ayab, Walid Abdel Hamid. 2010. "alathar alaiqtisadiat alkuliyat lisiasat alainfaq alhukumii dirasat tatbiqiat qiasiat linamadhij altanmiat alaiqtisadiat [The macroeconomic effects of government spending policy]", an applied econometric study of economic development models, Hussein Al-asriyya Library, Beirut.
Abdul Hussein, Uday Faleh. 2010. " aleunf alsiyasiu fi aleiraq baed eami" 2003 [Political Violence in Iraq after a year 2003]", MA thesis published at the University of Baghdad, College of Political Science
Odeh, Falah Gaseb. 2013. " altaeadudiat alhizbiat wazahirat eadam alaistiqrar alsiyasii aleiraq baed eam 2003 dirasat halati, [Partisan pluralism and the phenomenon of political instability in Iraq after 2003]". a case study, Al-Nahrain University, College of Political Science, unpublished master's thesis.
Publications of the International Monetary Fund. 2021.
Munathama Al shfafyaa Al dualyaa (TI). 2021.
Hashem, Hanan Abdel Khader. 2010. Al batalaa fee Al aktsad Al Iraqi: Al athar Al faalya w almualgat Al muktarha majalat, Al-Ghari Ll alume Al aktsadya W Aladarya, Al add, 2}.
Hashem, Hanan Abdel Khader. 2010. " albitalat fi alaiqtisad aleiraqii: alathar alfieliat walmuealijat almuqtarahat [Unemployment in the Iraqi Economy: Actual Effects and Proposed Treatments]". Al-Ghari Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Issue 2.
Hidan, Noura Kataf, W Salman, Zainab Talib. 2019. "Al fasad kaahd muawkat Al astkrar Al syasy fee Al Iraq [Corruption as one of the obstacles to political stability in Iraq]", Tikrit Journal of Political Science, Issue 17.
Wakala Al anbaa Al Iraqia. 2021.
Ahmad Battal . 2018. Iraqi economy: challenges & opportunities. The conference, University of Anbar.
Ali Heba . 2011. Inflation Dynamics:-The Case of Egypt, MPRA Paper No. (36331). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1987425
Central Bank of Iraq Tradingeconomics.com. 2019.
Khalid Al Ansary. 2018. Iraq Pumping Oil at Record Levels, Unaffected by Protests.
Lawhedh Khaleel Ibrahim. 2021. Impact of Foreign Direct Investment of Multination Corporation on Macroeconmic variables Iraq Economy: Comparison with selected Middle East and North African (MENA) Countries; Doctor of Philosophy, Business Administration; January.
Watling Jack .How Can Iraq Rebuild? IMF. 2017.
Additional Files
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Journal Policies
All articles published in the International and Political Journal are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. This means that the Authors can:
The journal allows reuse and remixing of content in accordance with a Creative Commons license.
Copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.
Policy of publishing in The International and Political Journal
The journal is committed to the ethics of scientific publishing, and according to the publication ethics report of the journal.
The decision to publish is based on the value of the scientific research, to what extent it meets the conditions of publication approved, the declared policy of the journal, and its specialty.
It is based on the principles of the scientific honesty, and originality of research submitted for publication. It deals with the names of reviewers and their reports with great confidentiality.
The opinions published in the journal reflect the views of the authors, and not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board.
The journal does not adhere to the publication of whatever comes to it. The time and place of publication are subject to technical considerations adopted in the editorial plan of the journal.
The journal does not abide to return the research papers to their owners whether accepted for publication or not.
The researcher is to be provided with the acceptance of publication within about 24 WEEKS. As for publication, the editorial board reserves its right in priority of publishing. The arrangement of the research papers in the same issue is subject to technical standards.
Diversify of publishing papers from solid universities and scientific centers from inside and outside Iraq is preferable.
The journal maintains hard copies and electronic archive of the published issues in addition to the publication of the research papers.
The journal also publishes the issues electronically through the website of the journal, and the official website of the Iraqi academic journals, and makes it possible to download. Thus, documenting the intellectual property of the research papers and publishing them internationally is achieved.
Terms of publication may be modified when necessary with no previous notice.
The researcher obtains a copy of his research paper. If he wishes to buy acopy of the journal, the volume costs ID 10000 from inside Iraq and $8from the outside.
The Editorial Board considers that the researcher who submits his research paper for publication in the journal has already read the terms and conditions of publication and agreed on them.
The journal publishes the research papers of the postgraduate students in special issues for this purpose.
Stages of editing and publishing:
The researcher undertakes that his research has never been published before, and has not been submitted for publication to other sides until the end of the evaluation procedures and the acceptance of publication in the journal.
The research papers submitted for publication are to subjected for preliminary examination by the editorial board to determine their suitability for the journal specialization, its policy and the safety of scientific research procedures, and then to indicate its eligibility for scientific evaluation. The editorial board may apologize for accepting the research all together or require the researcher to amend it in accordance with the journal policy before sending it to editors.
After conducting the scientific evaluation, the research paper returns back to the researcher to make the required amendments within a maximum of two weeks.
A copy of the final research paper is to be submitted to the secretariat of the journal a hard copy and a soft copy on a CD, in both Word and PDF format. The researcher is fully responsible for the typing and linguistic mistakes after submitting the full research paper on a CD.
Plagiarism checker
All research papers are subjected to Turnitin program to uncover plagiarism before being sent to scientific evaluation. The researcher undertakes a written pledge to take the legal and moral responsibility, in the event of the emergence of plagiarism or taking from the efforts of other researchers, without a reference to them. The journal uses appropriate anti-plagiarism software, such as Turnitin to check for plagiarism.
Dealing with Allegations of Research Misconduct
The Journal shall take reasonable and serious steps to identify and prevent the publication of papers where research misconduct has occurred, including plagiarism, citation manipulation, and data falsification/fabrication.
Scientific Evaluation:
Scientific evaluation strengthens the research paper submitted to the journal and helps to take the appropriate decision by the editorial board to publish it. It also benefits the researchers to improve and correct their research papers.
The research paper is sent to three evaluators in the same specialty to evaluate
